While the original heuristic yielded an overall prediction rate of 50% exactly, the new heuristic does slightly better and yields a prediction rate of 52. 1%. This suggests that the. But over the last 10 years, the groundhog has been correct only two other times: 2020 and 2015, resulting in an accuracy rate of 30%. As for 2025, the national weather service's.
Based on data from the stormfax almanac, that means phils accuracy rate is an abysmal 39 percent. If you only look at weather records dating back to 1969, which are more. Chucks accuracy rate since the staten island zoo started its groundhog day predictions is as high as 85%, according to the zoo a hot streak that is incomparable to his much more. The accuracy rate is a fundamental metric used in statistics, data analysis, and data science to evaluate the performance of a predictive model. It represents the proportion of true results. The article in question cites ~50% accuracy rate but that was for a very short window of data and different groundhogs. It is less accurate than a coin flip. According to the national oceanic and atmospheric administration, phil has a 35% overall accuracy rating over 135 years. Of the 128 recorded times phil has predicted the weather, he has now seen.
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